More US Election Mathematical fun!

 In Pennsylvania, it was reported that there was a vote "spike" where 570,000 went to Biden and only 3,200 went to Trump.

So I crunched some numbers!

In a situation like this, where there is a set number of votes ("trials" in maths-speak), and we're trying to work out the probability of a certain number of voting one direction ("successes" in maths-speak), we can use the Binomial Distribution.

A note on how this works... If we liken it to tossing a coin 100 times, and we want to find the probability of 32 "heads", this can be calculated to be 0.000112817. But this isn't really fair, because this is asking for exactly 32 heads, no more, no less. So it's more appropriate to calculate the probability of getting up to 32 heads, which gives this result: 0.000204389 - still a tiny number, but note that it's almost twice as much as the first calculation.

So let's run the numbers of those votes.

Number of trials, n, is 570,000 + 3,200 = 573,200.
Number of successes is up to 3,200.

But what should we use for the probability? Well, as before, I'll assume a 99% support base for Biden. That means the probability of a success (a vote for Trump) is 1%, or 0.01.

The question can then be written in Maths language as:

Given X~B(573200, 0.01), calculate P(X ≤ 3200).

Which gives 1.65332 × 10^-294
or a chance of 1 in 604 842 061 141 140 377 719 184 915 396 113 341 356 675 744 654 064 379 175 243 351 909 393 292 934 471 553 738 480 228 299 700 589 298 016 113 752 778 743 246 771 405 990 194 608 183 829 027 018 967 783 838 497 507 682 978 450 352 998 589 692 971 200 126 418 069 299 327 043 837 434 678 614 636 455 904 893 217 255 383 372 225 337 155 059 338 158 579 591 565 191 683 605 396 826 505 090 107

That's 1 in 6.05 × 10^293

Make sure you understand Scientific Notation to realise just how tiny this probability is.

 

Now, as before, let's give a bit of perspective:

I am still more likely to randomly shuffle a deck of cards into perfect numerical order, within their correct suits, just as if the cards had been pulled fresh from their packet... not just once, or twice... but four times in a row than for Trump to have that few votes in such a large pack of ballots.

It's not even close... the chances of shuffling that deck of cards four times in a row is over a sextillion times higher (that's 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000) than Trump getting that few votes.

And remember: that's assuming Biden has a 99% support base in that area!

As a mathematician, I don't believe it. Something fishy is going on.

A quick note on "doxxing"...

Following on from my last post...

Anyone who engages in "doxxing" (giving out a person's personal information, including but not limited to their name, address, phone number, etc. for the purposes of spam, hatemail, threats, etc.)...

 

... is the very fascist they accuse Trump of being.

 

Don't be a hypocrite. Be a decent human being and accept that people don't always have the same perspective. Otherwise you're a fascist.

How to end fascism

 After the US election, after election day itself (which showed Trump winning) when a bunch of new votes, software glitches and other mysterious - and, of course, completely normal - things happened to give Biden the lead, a bunch of... "logically challenged"?* ... people celebrated the supposed "win against fascism".

Why was it a "win against fascism"? Because, obviously, Trump is the biggest fascist to ever walk the earth and apparently completely destroyed American values... (by upholding the law, denouncing white supremacy, donating his Presidential salary, not engaging in wars in the Middle East, brokering peace deals, and ultimately gaining the highest percentage of minority votes for Republicans since Ronald Reagan... go figure).

So, in order to make sure such "fascism" is never again allowed to rear it's ugly head in America, those who oppose Trump set up the "Trump Accountability Project".

This project aims to ensure that any Trump supporters are never allowed to further their careers or hold public office. They get named, shamed and held back in life. I guess this is the true definition of "equity" that left-wing people support?

This is supposedly the sure-fire way to ensure "fascism" is held at bay...

But, you may be wondering, isn't it fascist in nature?

Don't ask stupid questions, or you'll get "fact-checked" by Facebook, banned by Twitter, and slammed by the mainstream propaganda machine media.

Thankfully, after Joe Biden's calls for unity (which are sure to work, because they are just like Trump's calls for unity), the "Trump Accountabilty Project" was scrapped.

Can you imagine what life would be like if Biden hadn't called for unity?!?!

If the outcome of the election (as it's still not confirmed, despite what the media says) does go in Biden's favour, he'd better last out the full 4 years, because I'll bet this "Trump Accountability Project" will start up with a vengeance if Harris takes over.

* "logically challenged" because the election is currently still not confirmed, but the vast majority of people are brainwashed into thinking it is. And I'm not talking about Americans alone, I'm talking about the whole world, including leaders of other countries who have congratulated Biden on his "win" that he hasn't actually gained yet.

"Reset" your language!

So much of language is filled with "buzzwords". The particular buzzwords can depend on your profession, but those words are the dog-whistle to the 'higher powers' that you know what you're doing, and you're in-line with their agenda. One of the greatest situations for using buzzwords is in interviews. Get the language correct, and you get the job.

One area of great concern regards what many have come to call the "New World Order".

Joe Biden has talked of "reimagining policing" and "reimagining" NATO. It's a great buzzword, to "reimagine". To most people, it's a fairly harmless word which they believe is used to inspire hope for the future. But those a little more switched on, it's a dog-whistle to something else.

"The Great Reset" is an idea whereby crises such as the Covid-19 outbreak can be used to influence policy and the populace in a particular way. There are a number of groups that don't want people to look back to a time before 2020, but to look ahead to a "post-Covid" world, to a "new normal".

These people want to change every aspect of society: "the world must act jointly and swiftly to revamp all aspects of our societies and economies, from education to social contracts and working conditions."

They will use any means necessary to eliminate capitalism: "In short, we need a “Great Reset” of capitalism."

They will destroy everyone's lifestyle: "one silver lining of the pandemic is that it has shown how quickly we can make radical changes to our lifestyles."

They will twist reality, implying that the forced lockdowns show "willingness" (as opposed to oppression by the state): "populations have overwhelmingly shown a willingness to make sacrifices for the sake of health-care".

They have determined what is best, what is needed, and the populace must comply: "Clearly, the will to build a better society does exist. We must use it to secure the Great Reset that we so badly need."

They want governments to become more authoritarian: "That will require stronger and more effective governments".

They want a focus on outcome rather than opportunity (i.e. hard work doesn't pay off, because everyone is rewarded the same; a step in the direction of communism): "steer the market toward fairer outcomes."

They want taxes and regulations to increase: "governments should improve coordination (for example, in tax, regulatory, and fiscal policy)".

Any money should be used to implement a new system, this system: "Rather than using these funds, as well as investments from private entities and pension funds, to fill cracks in the old system, we should use them to create a new one".

Apparently all of this is for "the public good".

The time to act is now... change everything, accept a new government regime that will affect every aspect of your life and society, increase taxes, reward laziness, infect the education system with groupthink...

We need to "reimagine" life...

In short: before we exit the current crisis and can think rationally, submit to a communist takeover!

After all, it's for "the public good" and will ensure people like Klaus Schwab will become the new elites.

Note: I never used to believe in this "New World Order" idea... but the evidence is mounting that there are people working to subvert the current governments and systems to enforce a global communist takeover, where they get to enforce their rules on everyone else. Sound like fun?

US Election Mathematical fun!

 Let's do some calculations...

If I were to shuffle a deck of cards, the chance of it ending up in perfect numerical order, within the correct suits, as if the cards had just been pulled from the pack for the first time is:

1 in 80 658 175 170 943 878 571 660 636 856 403 766 975 289 505 440 883 277 824 000 000 000 000

That's 1 in 8 x 10^67.

If I were to do that 4 times in a row, the chances would be 1 in 42 324 668 846 415 660 077 857 202 047 347 746 677 935 967 944 612 046 667 814 114 345 170 207 396 228 703 086 283 421 770 796 366 410 106 374 242 729 407 222 439 001 313 217 490 503 683 356 007 835 033 781 255 324 651 204 466 826 842 852 565 637 467 820 039 406 627 183 944 921 497 480 856 600 576 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000

Or 1 in 4 x 10^271

 

Now, let's assume that in one particular US county, 99% of the population supports Biden (which, statistically is never the case, but let's suppose anyway). The chances of a box of 20,000 ballots all for Biden would be 1 in 2 x 10^87.

Already these chances are far smaller than the first shuffle of the deck of cards above.

Let's suppose this 99% Biden-supporting county finds a box of 64,000 ballots. The chances of every ballot in that box being for Biden is 1 in 2 x 10^279.

That's over 10,000,000 times smaller than all four shuffles of the deck of cards above!

The story is that there was a box of 128,000 ballots, all for Biden, in a county that's a fair bit lower than 99% supportive of Biden?!?!?

That would be in the order of 10^560...

So, let's assume it was a "typo". If there were 15,000 ballots all for Biden, with not a single one for Trump, those chances are 1 in 3 x 10^65, and that's still assuming a 99% Biden-supporting populace.

In short, if, there are ballot drops with all the votes going to one candidate, it is pretty much certain that there's something fishy going on.

"Without evidence" and "if true"

 When the media uses the phrase "without evidence", it can mean a few things:

1. There might be evidence that just hasn't been made public yet, but we (the media) was to subvert the legal protocols and force officials to make it public, so we'll frame the story as fake until they do.
   
   
2. There is evidence, but we don't want the general populace to know about it, so we'll frame it as fake to deter people from looking it up and we'll work with Google and YouTube (which are the same company) to block the evidence from being made known.

If there really was no evidence, it would be a very short story, and likely won't even be given air-time. Many rumours are out there, but they don't make the news because there's no evidence (or not enough) to support it.

When the media uses the phrase "if true" (which they did to exhaustion with the impeachment of President Trump), it can mean:

1. There is no evidence for this, but we want it to be in your minds anyway, so we'll keep reporting on it and when evidence come out to the contrary, we'll fall back on, "Well, we did say 'if true' so we weren't presenting it as fact."

And that's about it. Because if there's no evidence, it would be a very short story and likely won't even be given air-time. (Am I repeating myself?!)

This is because the media know that many people watch their "news" and they know the power it can have. They use the power to change the minds of the people subtly by repeating the same things over and over again and then use the fact that "it's been in the news" as "proof" that the story is valid.

It's a fallacy. Don't fall for it.

Trump's Accomplishments

This is from a guy on YouTube, "cruisersism". Some people actually do some research rather than simply believing biased left-wing media. This is the stuff the media doesn't want you to know about Trump, what they either omit, twist or censor.

[Formatting edited slightly for readability.]

From someone on the outside looking in, I see You have a President that loves his country and its people. Just look at what he has done in 3 years compared with 50 years of Biden and 8 of them as VP!!! America needs to wake up, some of you don't know a good thing when it happens!!! Please vote President Trump back into power he is the only hope for your country and this World. Believe it.

On the other side, we have this !!! The Big 7 point Plan

The Democrats hope to persuade the American people to change party using,

1 violent riots
2 murders
3 media
4 mail-in voting
5 climate change
6 the virus, and
7 the Courts
as weapons against the President, and when it gets too bad the people will accept any change. Wake up America. Get out there and vote Trump as if your life depends on it. And it does

It`s possible Joe Biden will drop out Harris will be the nominee and incomes Hillary as VP then if Harris wins she will drop out and Hillary becomes President! You have been warned!!! 

What President Trump has achieved in 3 years!!! 

* He created a White House VA Hotline to help veterans and principally staffed it with veterans and direct family members of veterans.
* VA employees are being held accountable for poor performance, with more than 4,000 VA employees removed, demoted, and suspended so far.
* Issued an executive order requiring the Secretaries of Defense, Homeland Security, and Veterans Affairs to submit a joint plan to provide veterans access to access to mental health treatment as they transition to civilian life.
* Because of a bill signed and championed by Trump, in 2020, most federal employees will see their pay increase by an average of 3.1% — the largest raise in more than 10 years.
* Trump signed into law up to 12 weeks of paid parental leave for millions of federal workers.
* Trump administration will provide HIV prevention drugs for free to 200,000 uninsured patients per year for 11 years.
* All-time record sales during the 2019 holidays.
* Trump signed an order allowing small businesses to group together when buying insurance to get a better price
* President Trump signed the Preventing Maternal Deaths Act that provides funding for states to develop maternal mortality reviews to better understand maternal complications and identify solutions & largely focuses on reducing the higher mortality rates for Black Americans.
* In 2018, President Trump signed the groundbreaking First Step Act, a criminal justice bill that enacted reforms that make our justice system fairer and help former inmates successfully return to society.
* The First Step Act’s reforms addressed inequities in sentencing laws that disproportionately harmed Black Americans and reformed mandatory minimums that created unfair outcomes.
* The First Step Act expanded judicial discretion in the sentencing of non-violent crimes.
* Over 90% of those benefiting from the retroactive sentencing reductions in the First Step Act are Black Americans. Freeing 90,000 Black Americans.
* The First Step Act provides rehabilitative programs to inmates, helping them successfully rejoin society and not return to crime.
* Trump increased funding for Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) by more than 14%. It also made it so they didn't have to come back to DC every year and beg for funding.
* Trump signed legislation forgiving Hurricane Katrina debt that threatened HBCUs.
* New single-family home sales are up 31.6% in October 2019 compared to just one year ago.
* Made HBCUs a priority by creating the position of executive director of the White House Initiative on HBCUs.
* Trump received the Bipartisan Justice Award at a historically black college for his criminal justice reform accomplishments.
* The poverty rate fell to a 17-year low of 11.8% under the Trump administration as a result of a jobs-rich environment.
* Poverty rates for African-Americans and Hispanic-Americans have reached their lowest levels since the U.S. began collecting such data.
* President Trump signed a bill that creates five national monuments, expands several national parks, adds 1.3 million acres of wilderness, and permanently reauthorizes the Land and Water, Conservation Fund.
* Trump’s USDA committed $124 Million to rebuild rural water infrastructure.
* Consumer confidence & small business confidence is at an all-time high.
* More than 7 million jobs created since the election.
* As of 2019 more Americans were employed than ever recorded before in our history.
* More than 400,000 manufacturing jobs created since his election.
* Trump appointed 5 openly gay ambassadors.
* Trump ordered Ric Grenell, his openly gay ambassador to Germany, to lead a global initiative to decriminalize homosexuality across the globe.
* Through Trump’s Anti-Trafficking Coordination Team (ACTeam) initiative, Federal law enforcement more than doubled convictions of human traffickers and increased the number of defendants charged by 75% in ACTeam districts.
* In 2018, the Department of Justice (DOJ) dismantled an organization that was the internet’s leading source of prostitution-related advertisements resulting in sex trafficking.
* Trump’s OMB published new anti-trafficking guidance for government procurement officials to more effectively combat human trafficking.
* Trump’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s Homeland Security Investigations arrested 1,588 criminals associated with Human Trafficking.
* Trump’s Department of Health and Human Services provided funding to support the National Human Trafficking Hotline to identify perpetrators and give victims the help they need.
* The hotline identified 16,862 potential human trafficking cases.
* Trump’s DOJ provided grants to organizations that support human trafficking victims – serving nearly 9,000 cases from July 1, 2017, to June 30, 2018.
* The Department of Homeland Security has hired more victim assistance specialists, helping victims get resources and support.
* President Trump has called on Congress to pass school choice legislation so that no child is trapped in a failing school because of his or her zip code.
* The President signed funding legislation in September 2018 that increased funding for school choice by $42 million.
* The tax cuts signed into law by President Trump promote school choice by allowing families to use 529 college savings plans for elementary and secondary education.
* Under his leadership, ISIS has lost most of its territory and been largely dismantled.
* ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi was killed.
* Signed the first Perkins CTE reauthorization since 2006, authorizing more than $1 billion for states each year to fund vocational and career education programs.
* Executive order expanding apprenticeship opportunities for students and workers.
* Trump issued an Executive Order prohibiting the U.S. government from discriminating against Christians or punishing expressions of faith.
* Signed an executive order that allows the government to withhold money from college campuses deemed to be anti-Semitic and who fail to combat anti-Semitism.
* President Trump ordered a halt to U.S. tax money going to international organizations that fund or perform abortions.
* Trump imposed sanctions on the socialists in Venezuela who have killed their citizens.
* Finalized new trade agreement with South Korea.
* Made a deal with the European Union to increase U.S. energy exports to Europe.
* Withdrew the U.S. from the job-killing TPP deal.
* Secured $250 billion in new trade and investment deals in China and $12 billion in Vietnam.
* Okayed up to $12 billion in aid for farmers affected by unfair trade retaliation.
* Has had over a dozen US hostages freed, including those Obama could not get freed.
* Trump signed the Music Modernization Act, the biggest change to copyright law in decades.
* Trump secured Billions that will fund the building of a wall at our southern border.
* The Trump Administration is promoting second chance hiring to give former inmates the opportunity to live crime-free lives and find meaningful employment. 
Trump’s DOJ and the Board of Prisons launched a new “Ready to Work Initiative” to help connect employers directly with former prisoners.