Wednesday 8 January 2020

Australian bushfires

I live in Australia. I've had so many people (who aren't in Australia) telling me how bad the fires are and how all of Australia's ablaze. So far, I've had 3 smokey days. In order to look at my area on the "fires near me" apps, I have to zoom right in. There are no fires nearby. There are a few big ones, but all the tiny ones aren't worth bothering about.  There was one about 40 km away, but it seems like that one has burned out, especially with recent rain.
 
Here's what you have to consider:

1. Any fire that gets reported will make it onto the app, as a safety precaution. This happens before firemen can go check it out and determine the real severity. Many of them are simple house fires. "Simple" because someone let their frying pan catch light or something like that. Such a fire will make it onto the app, and it will remain there for a while (sometimes even more than a day), even though the fire is no danger and was put out within 20 mins. Also, when that fire is put onto the app, it will be labelled as "out of control" because a fireman has not investigated it yet, not because the fire really is out of control.

2. The large fires aren't actually as big as the maps make out. Think about it: fire cannot burn a piece of wood indefinitely. At some point the wood burns up. These big fires are only a danger where the front of the fire is. People are returning to their homes (or what may be left of them) when the fire has passed. Just because a map shows a big area with a fire symbol, that just indicates the affected area, not how big the fire is.

3. On most maps, the fire symbols are all the same size. You can have a 400,000ha area fire with one fire symbol. You can also have a frying pan fire with the exact same fire symbol.

4. Due to the long drought, the bush is very, very dry. There is also a lot of fuel (i.e. wood and leaves) on the ground, more than usual because some areas haven't had the much-needed fires for many years. This is not climate change, it's just how the conditions currently are (if you roll a double six on a pair of normal dice, then another double six straight after, does that mean the dice are biased? No, because it's all about probabilities).

5. Bushfires are natural and part of the ecosystem. There was a fire near me last year (on the other side of the bay: I could pretty much see it from my house), and that area is now seeing some really good new growth. You can hardly tell there was a fire there. Yes, it is sad at how many animals are being affected, but unfortunately that's just the way it is at the moment. Yes it's a particularly bad fire season, but it'll pass, and the next few fire seasons will likely be much, much easier (but of course, that won't make the news).

6. People who live in bush areas that are prone to bushfires are just like people who live in tornado alley in the US, or who live on flood plains, or who live in earthquake zones, or near volcanoes. It's just the way it is. If they don't like it, then my advice to them is: move house!!

Here's an interesting video on how the international news, and people on social media, are twisting the reality to either push the "climate alarmism" agenda or to generate clicks: