More US Election Mathematical fun!

 In Pennsylvania, it was reported that there was a vote "spike" where 570,000 went to Biden and only 3,200 went to Trump.

So I crunched some numbers!

In a situation like this, where there is a set number of votes ("trials" in maths-speak), and we're trying to work out the probability of a certain number of voting one direction ("successes" in maths-speak), we can use the Binomial Distribution.

A note on how this works... If we liken it to tossing a coin 100 times, and we want to find the probability of 32 "heads", this can be calculated to be 0.000112817. But this isn't really fair, because this is asking for exactly 32 heads, no more, no less. So it's more appropriate to calculate the probability of getting up to 32 heads, which gives this result: 0.000204389 - still a tiny number, but note that it's almost twice as much as the first calculation.

So let's run the numbers of those votes.

Number of trials, n, is 570,000 + 3,200 = 573,200.
Number of successes is up to 3,200.

But what should we use for the probability? Well, as before, I'll assume a 99% support base for Biden. That means the probability of a success (a vote for Trump) is 1%, or 0.01.

The question can then be written in Maths language as:

Given X~B(573200, 0.01), calculate P(X ≤ 3200).

Which gives 1.65332 × 10^-294
or a chance of 1 in 604 842 061 141 140 377 719 184 915 396 113 341 356 675 744 654 064 379 175 243 351 909 393 292 934 471 553 738 480 228 299 700 589 298 016 113 752 778 743 246 771 405 990 194 608 183 829 027 018 967 783 838 497 507 682 978 450 352 998 589 692 971 200 126 418 069 299 327 043 837 434 678 614 636 455 904 893 217 255 383 372 225 337 155 059 338 158 579 591 565 191 683 605 396 826 505 090 107

That's 1 in 6.05 × 10^293

Make sure you understand Scientific Notation to realise just how tiny this probability is.

 

Now, as before, let's give a bit of perspective:

I am still more likely to randomly shuffle a deck of cards into perfect numerical order, within their correct suits, just as if the cards had been pulled fresh from their packet... not just once, or twice... but four times in a row than for Trump to have that few votes in such a large pack of ballots.

It's not even close... the chances of shuffling that deck of cards four times in a row is over a sextillion times higher (that's 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000) than Trump getting that few votes.

And remember: that's assuming Biden has a 99% support base in that area!

As a mathematician, I don't believe it. Something fishy is going on.

A quick note on "doxxing"...

Following on from my last post...

Anyone who engages in "doxxing" (giving out a person's personal information, including but not limited to their name, address, phone number, etc. for the purposes of spam, hatemail, threats, etc.)...

 

... is the very fascist they accuse Trump of being.

 

Don't be a hypocrite. Be a decent human being and accept that people don't always have the same perspective. Otherwise you're a fascist.

How to end fascism

 After the US election, after election day itself (which showed Trump winning) when a bunch of new votes, software glitches and other mysterious - and, of course, completely normal - things happened to give Biden the lead, a bunch of... "logically challenged"?* ... people celebrated the supposed "win against fascism".

Why was it a "win against fascism"? Because, obviously, Trump is the biggest fascist to ever walk the earth and apparently completely destroyed American values... (by upholding the law, denouncing white supremacy, donating his Presidential salary, not engaging in wars in the Middle East, brokering peace deals, and ultimately gaining the highest percentage of minority votes for Republicans since Ronald Reagan... go figure).

So, in order to make sure such "fascism" is never again allowed to rear it's ugly head in America, those who oppose Trump set up the "Trump Accountability Project".

This project aims to ensure that any Trump supporters are never allowed to further their careers or hold public office. They get named, shamed and held back in life. I guess this is the true definition of "equity" that left-wing people support?

This is supposedly the sure-fire way to ensure "fascism" is held at bay...

But, you may be wondering, isn't it fascist in nature?

Don't ask stupid questions, or you'll get "fact-checked" by Facebook, banned by Twitter, and slammed by the mainstream propaganda machine media.

Thankfully, after Joe Biden's calls for unity (which are sure to work, because they are just like Trump's calls for unity), the "Trump Accountabilty Project" was scrapped.

Can you imagine what life would be like if Biden hadn't called for unity?!?!

If the outcome of the election (as it's still not confirmed, despite what the media says) does go in Biden's favour, he'd better last out the full 4 years, because I'll bet this "Trump Accountability Project" will start up with a vengeance if Harris takes over.

* "logically challenged" because the election is currently still not confirmed, but the vast majority of people are brainwashed into thinking it is. And I'm not talking about Americans alone, I'm talking about the whole world, including leaders of other countries who have congratulated Biden on his "win" that he hasn't actually gained yet.

"Reset" your language!

So much of language is filled with "buzzwords". The particular buzzwords can depend on your profession, but those words are the dog-whistle to the 'higher powers' that you know what you're doing, and you're in-line with their agenda. One of the greatest situations for using buzzwords is in interviews. Get the language correct, and you get the job.

One area of great concern regards what many have come to call the "New World Order".

Joe Biden has talked of "reimagining policing" and "reimagining" NATO. It's a great buzzword, to "reimagine". To most people, it's a fairly harmless word which they believe is used to inspire hope for the future. But those a little more switched on, it's a dog-whistle to something else.

"The Great Reset" is an idea whereby crises such as the Covid-19 outbreak can be used to influence policy and the populace in a particular way. There are a number of groups that don't want people to look back to a time before 2020, but to look ahead to a "post-Covid" world, to a "new normal".

These people want to change every aspect of society: "the world must act jointly and swiftly to revamp all aspects of our societies and economies, from education to social contracts and working conditions."

They will use any means necessary to eliminate capitalism: "In short, we need a “Great Reset” of capitalism."

They will destroy everyone's lifestyle: "one silver lining of the pandemic is that it has shown how quickly we can make radical changes to our lifestyles."

They will twist reality, implying that the forced lockdowns show "willingness" (as opposed to oppression by the state): "populations have overwhelmingly shown a willingness to make sacrifices for the sake of health-care".

They have determined what is best, what is needed, and the populace must comply: "Clearly, the will to build a better society does exist. We must use it to secure the Great Reset that we so badly need."

They want governments to become more authoritarian: "That will require stronger and more effective governments".

They want a focus on outcome rather than opportunity (i.e. hard work doesn't pay off, because everyone is rewarded the same; a step in the direction of communism): "steer the market toward fairer outcomes."

They want taxes and regulations to increase: "governments should improve coordination (for example, in tax, regulatory, and fiscal policy)".

Any money should be used to implement a new system, this system: "Rather than using these funds, as well as investments from private entities and pension funds, to fill cracks in the old system, we should use them to create a new one".

Apparently all of this is for "the public good".

The time to act is now... change everything, accept a new government regime that will affect every aspect of your life and society, increase taxes, reward laziness, infect the education system with groupthink...

We need to "reimagine" life...

In short: before we exit the current crisis and can think rationally, submit to a communist takeover!

After all, it's for "the public good" and will ensure people like Klaus Schwab will become the new elites.

Note: I never used to believe in this "New World Order" idea... but the evidence is mounting that there are people working to subvert the current governments and systems to enforce a global communist takeover, where they get to enforce their rules on everyone else. Sound like fun?

US Election Mathematical fun!

 Let's do some calculations...

If I were to shuffle a deck of cards, the chance of it ending up in perfect numerical order, within the correct suits, as if the cards had just been pulled from the pack for the first time is:

1 in 80 658 175 170 943 878 571 660 636 856 403 766 975 289 505 440 883 277 824 000 000 000 000

That's 1 in 8 x 10^67.

If I were to do that 4 times in a row, the chances would be 1 in 42 324 668 846 415 660 077 857 202 047 347 746 677 935 967 944 612 046 667 814 114 345 170 207 396 228 703 086 283 421 770 796 366 410 106 374 242 729 407 222 439 001 313 217 490 503 683 356 007 835 033 781 255 324 651 204 466 826 842 852 565 637 467 820 039 406 627 183 944 921 497 480 856 600 576 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000

Or 1 in 4 x 10^271

 

Now, let's assume that in one particular US county, 99% of the population supports Biden (which, statistically is never the case, but let's suppose anyway). The chances of a box of 20,000 ballots all for Biden would be 1 in 2 x 10^87.

Already these chances are far smaller than the first shuffle of the deck of cards above.

Let's suppose this 99% Biden-supporting county finds a box of 64,000 ballots. The chances of every ballot in that box being for Biden is 1 in 2 x 10^279.

That's over 10,000,000 times smaller than all four shuffles of the deck of cards above!

The story is that there was a box of 128,000 ballots, all for Biden, in a county that's a fair bit lower than 99% supportive of Biden?!?!?

That would be in the order of 10^560...

So, let's assume it was a "typo". If there were 15,000 ballots all for Biden, with not a single one for Trump, those chances are 1 in 3 x 10^65, and that's still assuming a 99% Biden-supporting populace.

In short, if, there are ballot drops with all the votes going to one candidate, it is pretty much certain that there's something fishy going on.

"Without evidence" and "if true"

 When the media uses the phrase "without evidence", it can mean a few things:

1. There might be evidence that just hasn't been made public yet, but we (the media) was to subvert the legal protocols and force officials to make it public, so we'll frame the story as fake until they do.
   
   
2. There is evidence, but we don't want the general populace to know about it, so we'll frame it as fake to deter people from looking it up and we'll work with Google and YouTube (which are the same company) to block the evidence from being made known.

If there really was no evidence, it would be a very short story, and likely won't even be given air-time. Many rumours are out there, but they don't make the news because there's no evidence (or not enough) to support it.

When the media uses the phrase "if true" (which they did to exhaustion with the impeachment of President Trump), it can mean:

1. There is no evidence for this, but we want it to be in your minds anyway, so we'll keep reporting on it and when evidence come out to the contrary, we'll fall back on, "Well, we did say 'if true' so we weren't presenting it as fact."

And that's about it. Because if there's no evidence, it would be a very short story and likely won't even be given air-time. (Am I repeating myself?!)

This is because the media know that many people watch their "news" and they know the power it can have. They use the power to change the minds of the people subtly by repeating the same things over and over again and then use the fact that "it's been in the news" as "proof" that the story is valid.

It's a fallacy. Don't fall for it.

Trump's Accomplishments

This is from a guy on YouTube, "cruisersism". Some people actually do some research rather than simply believing biased left-wing media. This is the stuff the media doesn't want you to know about Trump, what they either omit, twist or censor.

[Formatting edited slightly for readability.]

From someone on the outside looking in, I see You have a President that loves his country and its people. Just look at what he has done in 3 years compared with 50 years of Biden and 8 of them as VP!!! America needs to wake up, some of you don't know a good thing when it happens!!! Please vote President Trump back into power he is the only hope for your country and this World. Believe it.

On the other side, we have this !!! The Big 7 point Plan

The Democrats hope to persuade the American people to change party using,

1 violent riots
2 murders
3 media
4 mail-in voting
5 climate change
6 the virus, and
7 the Courts
as weapons against the President, and when it gets too bad the people will accept any change. Wake up America. Get out there and vote Trump as if your life depends on it. And it does

It`s possible Joe Biden will drop out Harris will be the nominee and incomes Hillary as VP then if Harris wins she will drop out and Hillary becomes President! You have been warned!!! 

What President Trump has achieved in 3 years!!! 

* He created a White House VA Hotline to help veterans and principally staffed it with veterans and direct family members of veterans.
* VA employees are being held accountable for poor performance, with more than 4,000 VA employees removed, demoted, and suspended so far.
* Issued an executive order requiring the Secretaries of Defense, Homeland Security, and Veterans Affairs to submit a joint plan to provide veterans access to access to mental health treatment as they transition to civilian life.
* Because of a bill signed and championed by Trump, in 2020, most federal employees will see their pay increase by an average of 3.1% — the largest raise in more than 10 years.
* Trump signed into law up to 12 weeks of paid parental leave for millions of federal workers.
* Trump administration will provide HIV prevention drugs for free to 200,000 uninsured patients per year for 11 years.
* All-time record sales during the 2019 holidays.
* Trump signed an order allowing small businesses to group together when buying insurance to get a better price
* President Trump signed the Preventing Maternal Deaths Act that provides funding for states to develop maternal mortality reviews to better understand maternal complications and identify solutions & largely focuses on reducing the higher mortality rates for Black Americans.
* In 2018, President Trump signed the groundbreaking First Step Act, a criminal justice bill that enacted reforms that make our justice system fairer and help former inmates successfully return to society.
* The First Step Act’s reforms addressed inequities in sentencing laws that disproportionately harmed Black Americans and reformed mandatory minimums that created unfair outcomes.
* The First Step Act expanded judicial discretion in the sentencing of non-violent crimes.
* Over 90% of those benefiting from the retroactive sentencing reductions in the First Step Act are Black Americans. Freeing 90,000 Black Americans.
* The First Step Act provides rehabilitative programs to inmates, helping them successfully rejoin society and not return to crime.
* Trump increased funding for Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) by more than 14%. It also made it so they didn't have to come back to DC every year and beg for funding.
* Trump signed legislation forgiving Hurricane Katrina debt that threatened HBCUs.
* New single-family home sales are up 31.6% in October 2019 compared to just one year ago.
* Made HBCUs a priority by creating the position of executive director of the White House Initiative on HBCUs.
* Trump received the Bipartisan Justice Award at a historically black college for his criminal justice reform accomplishments.
* The poverty rate fell to a 17-year low of 11.8% under the Trump administration as a result of a jobs-rich environment.
* Poverty rates for African-Americans and Hispanic-Americans have reached their lowest levels since the U.S. began collecting such data.
* President Trump signed a bill that creates five national monuments, expands several national parks, adds 1.3 million acres of wilderness, and permanently reauthorizes the Land and Water, Conservation Fund.
* Trump’s USDA committed $124 Million to rebuild rural water infrastructure.
* Consumer confidence & small business confidence is at an all-time high.
* More than 7 million jobs created since the election.
* As of 2019 more Americans were employed than ever recorded before in our history.
* More than 400,000 manufacturing jobs created since his election.
* Trump appointed 5 openly gay ambassadors.
* Trump ordered Ric Grenell, his openly gay ambassador to Germany, to lead a global initiative to decriminalize homosexuality across the globe.
* Through Trump’s Anti-Trafficking Coordination Team (ACTeam) initiative, Federal law enforcement more than doubled convictions of human traffickers and increased the number of defendants charged by 75% in ACTeam districts.
* In 2018, the Department of Justice (DOJ) dismantled an organization that was the internet’s leading source of prostitution-related advertisements resulting in sex trafficking.
* Trump’s OMB published new anti-trafficking guidance for government procurement officials to more effectively combat human trafficking.
* Trump’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s Homeland Security Investigations arrested 1,588 criminals associated with Human Trafficking.
* Trump’s Department of Health and Human Services provided funding to support the National Human Trafficking Hotline to identify perpetrators and give victims the help they need.
* The hotline identified 16,862 potential human trafficking cases.
* Trump’s DOJ provided grants to organizations that support human trafficking victims – serving nearly 9,000 cases from July 1, 2017, to June 30, 2018.
* The Department of Homeland Security has hired more victim assistance specialists, helping victims get resources and support.
* President Trump has called on Congress to pass school choice legislation so that no child is trapped in a failing school because of his or her zip code.
* The President signed funding legislation in September 2018 that increased funding for school choice by $42 million.
* The tax cuts signed into law by President Trump promote school choice by allowing families to use 529 college savings plans for elementary and secondary education.
* Under his leadership, ISIS has lost most of its territory and been largely dismantled.
* ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi was killed.
* Signed the first Perkins CTE reauthorization since 2006, authorizing more than $1 billion for states each year to fund vocational and career education programs.
* Executive order expanding apprenticeship opportunities for students and workers.
* Trump issued an Executive Order prohibiting the U.S. government from discriminating against Christians or punishing expressions of faith.
* Signed an executive order that allows the government to withhold money from college campuses deemed to be anti-Semitic and who fail to combat anti-Semitism.
* President Trump ordered a halt to U.S. tax money going to international organizations that fund or perform abortions.
* Trump imposed sanctions on the socialists in Venezuela who have killed their citizens.
* Finalized new trade agreement with South Korea.
* Made a deal with the European Union to increase U.S. energy exports to Europe.
* Withdrew the U.S. from the job-killing TPP deal.
* Secured $250 billion in new trade and investment deals in China and $12 billion in Vietnam.
* Okayed up to $12 billion in aid for farmers affected by unfair trade retaliation.
* Has had over a dozen US hostages freed, including those Obama could not get freed.
* Trump signed the Music Modernization Act, the biggest change to copyright law in decades.
* Trump secured Billions that will fund the building of a wall at our southern border.
* The Trump Administration is promoting second chance hiring to give former inmates the opportunity to live crime-free lives and find meaningful employment. 
Trump’s DOJ and the Board of Prisons launched a new “Ready to Work Initiative” to help connect employers directly with former prisoners.

Biased New York Times

 I my previous post, I mentioned this article from the New York Times. Let's analyse it!

1.    "President Trump spoke positively about an extremist conspiracy-theory group..."

The group in question is "Q-Anon" which presents selected facts that show Democrats involved in a paedophile ring, satanic cults, and even suggesting that the Vatican is engaged in idol worship. You can find more about it here. It is important to note that the narrator encourages the viewer to do their own research and look it all up. There are actually a surprising amount of articles supporting it, but it may well be selected research.

2.    "On the central issue of the election, the coronavirus pandemic, the two candidates appeared to inhabit not just different television sets but different universes. Mr. Biden has made the full embrace of strict public health guidelines the centerpiece of his candidacy, while Mr. Trump has continued to defy even the recommendations of his own government on matters as basic as the use of masks..."

Rather interesting how they paint Biden as the "sensible" person... but what is meant by "strict public health guidelines"? Could it mean the shutdown of the country again? Most likely. That's not a position favoured by many Americans, or much of the rest of the world.

Interestingly, the media keep banging on about Trump and masks. In Trump's Town Hall, he commented that so many people keep touching their masks and fiddling with them. They are not the most sanitary of modern-day fashion accessories, and people rarely use them in the manner needed to keep them clean so that they slow the spread. That was the point Trump was making, but of course a biased article will take it out of context.

3.    "The president professed to have no knowledge of the group [Q-Anon], and as a result could not disavow it, but then demonstrated specific knowledge of one of its core conspiracy theories involving pedophilia that is entirely false.
'I know nothing about it,' Mr. Trump said. 'I do know they are very much against pedophilia. They fight it very hard.'"

What's false here? Q-Anon really does not support paedophilia, and surely they should be commended for that? They even talk of Jeffrey Epstein's paedophile ring, and that is a verified fact.

It's interesting that the article devotes a large number of words to Q-Anon. The Host of Trump's Town Hall even brought up Trump and denouncing "white supremacy" (note: Trump has denounced white supremacy many times) and completely ignored Trump's comment that Joe Biden has never been asked to denounce BLM or Antifa (ironically, two anti-Trump groups that are supposedly 'anti-fascist' and yet use fascist tactics to push their agenda...). Since the host wasn't able to produce a newsworthy story about white supremacy, she turns to Q-Anon. This is why the left-wing of US politics are becoming more and more unlikeable: they continuously move the goalposts. For years, they've been asking Trump to denounce white supremacy (including recently!), despite him frequently doing so. When this host was confronted on it directly, she quickly pivoted to something else... just to produce a story for the anti-Trump press.

4.    "At the moment that Mr. Trump was effectively defending a fringe corner of the internet, Mr. Biden, the former vice president, was speaking about corporate tax rates and citing the business-analysis service Moody’s, underscoring the extraordinary gulf separating the two candidates in their worldviews, policies and connections to factual reality."

What a waste of words. This does not "underscore" anything.

5.    "With less than three weeks left in the presidential campaign, there was no sign from the town hall events that either candidate was diverging from the political tracks they laid down months ago, with Mr. Biden hewing close to a set of broadly popular views on economic and public health issues and Mr. Trump improvising freely, admitting no fault in his own record and hurling various forms of provocation."

Biden's views on the economy will cripple it. The "Green New Deal" (which Biden said he doesn't support in the first Presidential Debate, but really he does) will increase taxes, cripple the economy and implement socialism. It got slammed by many people, on both sides of the political spectrum, which is why Biden said he didn't support it, because he wants people to like him and vote for him. And this New York Times article is doing its part to push Joe Biden's agenda and tell people that "Orange Man Bad".

6.    "Indeed, their opposing presentations gave the impression that, had the two men been onstage together on Thursday evening, it might have unfolded much like their previous debate, which saw Mr. Trump hectoring and interrupting Mr. Biden for most of an hour and a half."

Actually, Biden and Trump were both interrupting each other, including the "moderator" Chris Wallace (who seemed like he was debating Trump more than Biden was). And, if you watch closely, you'll notice that it was actually Biden who started the interruptions, followed by Wallace.

7.    "Mr. Trump, by contrast, often flashed impatience with Ms. Guthrie’s persistent questioning ... The president sounded especially exasperated when she asked him to condemn white supremacy."

This is because the host spent twenty minutes quizzing Trump, when it was meant to be a Town Hall, where voters get to ask questions. The host should have kept her mouth shut and let the event be what it was supposed to be. As to "white supremacy", see the response at point 3, above. The white supremacy questions have to stop, because it's bad journalism and it's disingenuous.

8.    "Asked about a recent New York Times investigation that revealed he had paid minimal or no income taxes for years..."

Most of the media show time and again that they have zero understanding of taxes, and they present the story to readers who also have minimal understanding of taxes. It's this simple: no one likes paying taxes, and if there is a legal way to get out of paying them, a sensible person will take it. It's business. For more information, see here.

9.    "And he [Biden] jabbed at some of Mr. Trump’s more outlandish commentary on the virus, such as his suggestion that injecting disinfectant could help combat it.
'Crazy stuff,' Mr. Biden said. 'I’m not being facetious, though, I mean he actually said these things.'"

See my previous post. Biden is outright lying. Although I doubt he thinks he is, because he can't remember if he's running for President or Senate, can't recite a percentage quoted to him a few seconds before, thinks he's been in office 180 years, and thinks that Trump has already been elected twice (which would actually mean he is not allowed to run again).

10.    "Even as the coronavirus continues to tear through the country, Mr. Trump insisted that the United States was 'rounding the corner' in the health crisis..."

Yes, that's because a vaccine is almost ready. But biased media coverage denies that Trump has spurred on the creation of a vaccine and would rather blame him for every single death, despite him having no control over how the virus came to the US.

11.   "'On the masks, you have two stories,' Mr. Trump said, claiming falsely that most people who wear masks contract the virus."

If Trump was claiming that "most people who wear masks contract the virus" then there would be a much better quote than this. Journalists need to be called out on this: they quote something, then add their own opinion. Most people don't pay attention to where the quote marks end the quote and so believe that Trump actually said things that he didn't (such as injecting disinfectant...). And that's how media brainwashing occurs.

12.    "Arguing that the United States had fared well enough in the coronavirus pandemic, Mr. Trump brandished several sheets of paper as he cited figures showing rising case counts in Europe..."

This is because US biased media want Americans to believe that the US has it worse than every other country. The truth is that if you look at the number of deaths per million population the US is not top, and other countries - in Europe and in other parts of the world - are worse. Yes, the US is pretty high up, but it's not an anomaly, and it's not the worst. Added to which, the CDC has said that 94% of China virus deaths are comorbidities, meaning that there were other factors at play which may well have been the real cause of death. That would put the USA much lower in the charts. So who's politicising the virus, eh?

13.    "Perhaps notably, Mr. Trump said he would commit to a peaceful transfer of power..."

It's interesting that this gets asked of Trump. Hillary Clinton still talks about having won the popular vote and doesn't seem to have truly accepted her defeat. She has also said that Biden should not concede the election. Funny how the biased media twists things and projects.

14.    "After the president tested positive for the coronavirus this month, the Commission on Presidential Debates announced that the second scheduled encounter between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden would take place virtually, for safety reasons. Mr. Trump refused to participate in such an event, leading to its cancellation."

More twisting and convenient omission of facts here. Trump "tested" positive... past tense. He's now come through it and he's no longer infected. Hence, a live debate would have been possible. Joe Biden has been seen to often use teleprompters and scripts in virtual interviews and, quite rightly, Trump doesn't want that.

15.    "The president has been determined to return to campaigning as usual despite the apparent severity of the health issues he confronted, aware that time is running short and perhaps eager to dispel any perception among voters that he might be physically frail."

More outright lies by lying media. They have been desperate to push a narrative that Trump was very badly affected by the China virus, and they never let up, as evidenced in the quote above.