Saturday 27 May 2017

Predicting the future

Some might call it 'prophecy'. I was very interested when I came across an article entitled "Your brain has a 'sixth sense' that thinks ahead and predicts the future".

"Incredible!" I thought. "Science has shown that humans have the ability to know what's coming their way!"

How wrong I was.
Another example of a misleading headline.

The article tells of how a group of subjects were shown images of a dot moving across a screen. Then, when a dot was shown not moving across the screen, the subjects' brain activity showed that they expected the dot to move across the screen. All this, apparently, shows that we have the ability to predict the future.

I felt let down.

Predicting the future - to me, at least - is about knowing what's going to happen. In other words, those people should have known that the dot wasn't going to move across the screen. That would have been predicting the future.

There's even a quote:
"Our visual cortex might constantly predict events happening all around us on a daily basis..."

At this point, I still clung to some hope of sensible scientific analysis. But I suppose my 'future-predicting' sense is only as good as that of the test subjects': I wasn't particularly prepared for what came next:
"...the rotating arms of a windmill, or how to catch the ball that is moving towards us."

Is this really the forefront of scientific research?!?
Even a two-year-old will expect windmill arms that are already rotating... to continue rotating.
Does that mean two-year-olds are highly developed in their 'sixth sense'?

'Predicting the future' in that way is not particularly difficult:
When I pedal my bike, the wheels turn and I move forward.
When I throw a ball, it moves away from me.
When I flick the light switch, the light comes on.

Surely this 'predictability' is what actually makes it possible to live. Surely it's just common sense. Imagine what the world would be like without that sort of predictability: "I want to grow some tomatoes, but which seeds should I use? The tomato seeds might give me pineapples!"

Perhaps my expectations are too high. Perhaps I am doing scientists an injustice by expecting their research to inform me of something I didn't already know or couldn't work out by myself.

What's really quite interesting is the use of the word 'might':
"Our visual cortex might constantly predict events happening all around us..."
If this scientist struggles to predict the moving arms of a windmill, then I should feel sorry for him.

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